CMIP5全球气候模式对中国黄河流域气候模拟能力的评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2018.06.005

Abstract

Abstract: Based on gridded observation dataset,multi-criteria assessment on daily surface air temperature and precipitation (1961-2005) from 18 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models were conducted over the Yellow River Basin.A suite of statistics is calculated,including climatological mean,interannual variation,seasonal cycle,interannual modes,and probability distribution function,to evaluate their performances.According to the comprehensive rank,the models with poor validation are excluded.Five models,i.e.,MIROC-ESM-CHEM,CSIRO-Mk3-6-0,NorESM1-M,CNRM-CM5,and EC-EARTH are therefore recommended for the regional multi-model climate change projections over the Yellow River basin.The selected subset can also sample the range of uncertainty represented by the full ensemble.

Key words: Yellow River basin, CMIP5, Multi-criteria assessment, Objective selection, Uncertainty

CLC Number:

P467

ZHOU Wen-chong, HAN Zhen-yu. Assessing CMIP5 climate simulations and objective selection of models over the Yellow River basin[J]. Journal of Meteorology and Environment, 2018, 34(6): 42-55.

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Assessing CMIP5 climate simulations and objective selection of models over the Yellow River basin

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